MOGREPS-UK is a regional ensemble that produces probabilistic weather forecasts for the UK five days ahead.
For more general information on the operation of Met Office ensembles see our main website here.
Specifications (MOGREPS-UK)
| Grid length | Grid points | Vertical levels | Ensemble members | Forecast length | Run times (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.2 km inner domain; 4km outer domain |
740 x 752 grid points | 70 (lid ~40 km) |
See below | ~5 days 126 hours | Hourly |
Ensemble Members
The model is comprised of 18 separate model forecasts, or ensemble members. Ensemble forecasts quantify uncertainties in weather prediction and estimate risks of particular weather events to enable the user to assess the risks more accurately. Instead of running just a single forecast, the computer model is run a number of times from slightly different starting conditions. The complete set of forecasts is referred to as the ensemble, and individual forecasts within it as ensemble members.
The UK ensemble runs three perturbations per hour so a full 18 member ensemble is generated by time-lagging over 6 hours (latest 6 cycles).
| Members Generated | Run Times (UTC) | Member Ids Generated |
|---|---|---|
| Control member + 2 perturbed members to 5 days | 05, 17 | 0, 1, 2 |
| 11, 23 | 0, 18, 19 | |
| 3 perturbed members to 5 days | All other hours | |
| 06, 18 | 3, 4, 5 | |
| 07, 19 | 6, 7, 8 | |
| 08, 20 | 9, 10, 11 | |
| 09, 21 | 12, 13 ,14 | |
| 10, 22 | 15, 16, 17 | |
| 12, 00 | 20, 21, 22 | |
| 13, 01 | 23, 24, 25 | |
| 14, 02 | 26, 27, 28 | |
| 15, 03 | 29, 30, 31 | |
| 16, 04 | 32, 33, 34 |
Subsetting
MOGREPS-UK model data is now available on Met Office Weather DataHub in a selectable format via our established API service to our users. Users will be able to subset by:
- Parameter
- Time step
- Model run
The model generates forecasts on a standard grid with a Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection.